The Machine

Plans are doomed to fail, if we look for growth in the wrong places. Based on your share of market and the category, this model identifies your source of growth.

Identifies markets that are strategic priorities. Ideal for brands under budget constraint, to help find a defensible niche

Use your funnel properly. Input measures and identify leakiest funnel stages. Helps prioritize KPIs. Based on Mark Ritsons Mini MBA module on setting objectives

Analyze penetration vs loyalty laws for your brand. Based on the groundbreaking work of Andrew Ehrenberg

Identify high-value audience clusters, based on net profit volume, not just LTV. This is based on Dale Harrison's generalized NBD/Dirichlet model.

Brand versus activation. Mental and Physical availability. How much effort shoudl you be putting into both. Based on the works of Binet, Field and Sharp

If you're not both Quick to Mind AND Easy to Find, your growth is structurally capped and your margins are vulnerable. Use this model to identify the economic limits on your CAC, LTV, and baseline conversion probability.

Calculate growth potential based on your share of voice and share of market. Baed on the work of Les Binet, Peter Field and John Phillip Jones

Models and annualizes SOV/SOM ROI timelines based on typical advertising response curves.

Do you know how much of your TAM are actively in a buying moment? You do now. This will tell you the bounds of your short term activities. Sourced from John Dawes of the EBI

ROI and ROAS are poor measures of advertisisng success because they fail to take into account time. DCF enables you to model the impact of time on your investment - Tim Ambler, London Business School

What type of campaign are you planning for? How does a more implicit communcation need to be treated versus more explicit comms? Fame? Impact? Activation? or Reinforce?.

Light regression model to explore possible realtionships between channel investment and outcomes.

Run Monte-Carlo Simulations to paint a picture of the optimal, cross screen channel mix. Exposures are adjusted for attention, inspired by Karen Nelson Field.

Advertising works best when spends is distributed continuously over time. Use this tool howeber, to identify critical seasonal periods for your category.

Everyone wants lots of sales, now! But your short term effects are largely a product of category demand and your existing share. This calculator shows you the short term constraints your campaigns are bound by