Marketing strategy, built on the mathematics of how brands actually grow.

Most marketing tools report what happened. The Machine runs 20 connected models drawn from peer-reviewed marketing science, so the recommendation arrives with the reasoning attached — and survives contact with a finance director.

Grounded inEhrenberg-BassBinet & FieldByron SharpKaren Nelson-FieldMark RitsonDale HarrisonJohn DawesTim AmblerTindall / System1

It answers, it doesn't report

A dashboard tells you your click-through rate fell. The Machine tells you whether that matters, given your share, your category and where your funnel is actually leaking.

Every output shows its working

Each model names the research it rests on and the assumptions it makes. Where a method has limits — a stationary-market assumption, a screening tool that isn't an MMM — the tool says so on screen.

It augments judgment

The models constrain the argument and price the trade-offs. Choosing between defensible options is still your job, and the outputs are built to be argued with.

The 20 models

Area 01

Strategic Imperatives

Decide what you're trying to do before you decide what to spend.

01Objective SettingWeighs your share against competitor ad spend to set a priority — grow, defend or dominate — and cross-references market size with category penetration to find your best source of growth.Share vs category noise

02Market MappingScores markets on potential against complexity from factors you choose and weight, placing each in a quadrant so a constrained budget concentrates rather than spreads.Composite scoring

03KPI LadderReads the drop between consecutive funnel stages to find where you're leaking most, weighted for sector, category involvement and market share.Ritson · Mini MBA

04Double JeopardyPredicts the penetration, buying frequency and loyalty a brand of your size should expect, so you can separate a real performance problem from arithmetic.Ehrenberg · Dirichlet

05SegmentationValues each audience on net profit and payback rather than lifetime value alone, including the effect of category growth on the acquirable pool.Harrison · NBD/Dirichlet

Area 02

Growth Planning

Size the prize, then size the bill.

06Brand CalculatorSplits effort between mental availability and physical availability for your category and growth ambition.Binet, Field & Sharp

07Structural ElasticityDiagnoses the ceiling on your CAC, LTV and baseline conversion when you're neither quick to mind nor easy to find.Elasticity matrix

08Budget PlannerTurns the gap between share of voice and share of market into a three-year revenue consequence for each investment level.Binet, Field & Jones

09Payback CalculatorModels cumulative return across 156 weeks using cohort response curves, so brand investment can be argued on its own timescale.Weibull cohort curves

10In-Market VolumesCalculates how much of your addressable market is in a buying cycle now — the ceiling on anything short-term.Dawes · Ehrenberg-Bass

11Discounted Cash FlowROI and ROAS ignore time. This prices the delay between spend and return.Ambler · London Business School

Area 03

Advanced Optimisations

Once the budget is set, spend it well.

12Campaign PlannerMaps the challenge across explicit–implicit and cool–warm axes. The archetype changes which channels work and how creative is briefed.Campaign typology

13Channel PlannerMultivariate regression with adstock and saturation transforms, plus collinearity and autocorrelation diagnostics. A screening tool for generating hypotheses — not a substitute for a full MMM.Ridge regression

14Multi-Screen OptimizerSimulates cross-screen allocation against attention-adjusted reach curves to find the mix that maximises unduplicated reach.Nelson-Field · Monte Carlo

15Campaign FlightingBETAContinuity usually wins, but timing still matters. Surfaces your category's seasonal rhythm as a month-by-month split.Category seasonality

16Lead CalculatorThe short-term ceiling your campaigns are bound by, given category demand and your existing share.Demand constraints

17Creative EffectivenessCalculates your excess share of creativity and the growth, profit and price-sensitivity outcomes associated with it.Tindall, 2026

18Resonance PlannerModels how media weight carries between weeks, so a flight plan can be judged on effective pressure rather than raw spend.Adstock decay

20Performance OptimizerBETAFits saturation curves to paid media spend and searches for the profit-maximising allocation across lower-funnel channels.Saturation curves

Area 04

Continuous Learning

Find out whether it worked, then feed that back in.

19Causal ImpactBETABuilds a counterfactual from control metrics your campaign didn't touch, isolating incremental effect from what would have happened anyway.Causal inference